In our base case – which takes into account current industry plans, government policies and existing energy transition initiatives – global oil demand is forecast to rise by 3.5 mb/d between 2019 and 2025. A pathway to net-zero emissions globally by 2050 would require an even sharper decrease. Those sharp spending cuts and project delays are already constraining supply growth across the globe, with world oil production capacity now set to increase by 5 mb/d by 2026. In the absence of stronger policy action, global oil production would need to rise 10.2 mb/d by 2026 to meet the expected rebound in demand.
We expect that global oil inventories will increase by an average of 0.4 million b/d in 2Q25, before inventories rise by an average of 0.6 million b/d in the second half of 2025 (2H25). We forecast that inventory builds will put downward pressure on crude oil prices, with Brent falling to an average of $74/b in 2H25. In our forecast, the Brent price averages $76/b for the full year of 2025. As a result, these aren’t necessarily great numbers to determine how much oil is realistically available to us, but the numbers for technically recoverable oil do exceed proved reserves in many regions.
Regional share of wind electricity production, 2019
- If the 20th century was an expansive era seemingly without boundaries—a time of jet planes, space travel and the Internet—the early years of the 21st have showed us the limits of our small world.
- Aviation fuels, the hardest hit by the crisis, are expected to slowly return to 2019 levels by 2024, but the spread of online meetings could permanently alter business travel trends.
- Gas is a major provider of electricity production and a key source of heat.
- However, Brent fell to $71/b on October 29 after Israel’s military response did not target Iran’s oil infrastructure.
- Its excellent timber led to exploitation; by the 20th century only one remained in the wild.
Net volumetric gains and losses in the refining process and marine transportation losses. Total Non-OPEC excludes all countries that are currently members of OPEC. Total OPEC comprises all countries which are current OPEC members.
These deposits could be in locations too remote or in rock too solid to drill. Corporations might get at them in the future if new tech (and barrel prices) allow. Much of the crude in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico was once “probable,” but more-precise drilling techniques goosed it into the proven realm. “Undiscovered resources are those that are estimated to exist based on geology, geophysics, geochemistry, and our familiarity with similar basins and rock formations. They have not yet been proven to exist via drilling,” says Alex Demas, a spokesperson for the USGS.
Regional share of crude oil production, 2020
All visualizations, data, and code produced by Our World in Data are completely open access under the Creative Commons BY license. You have the permission to use, distribute, and reproduce these in any medium, provided the source and authors are credited. “Proven reserves” represent gas that we know with reasonable certainty could be recovered in the future under existing economic and technological operating conditions. In other words, we know it’s there, and it would be technologically and economically feasible to extract it. “Proven reserves” represent coal that we know with reasonable certainty could be recovered in the future under existing economic and technological operating conditions.
There’s also recoverable oil we haven’t yet discovered; that’s a hazier number, although in 2012, the U.S. A much stronger pivot towards a cleaner energy future will be required to reach ambitious mid-century goals for net-zero emissions. This will involve more concrete government policies and legislative action, as well as major behavioural changes. Against this backdrop, it is hardly surprising that upstream investments and expansion plans have how much oil is left in the world been scaled back.
Asian oil demand will continue to rise strongly, albeit at a slower pace than in the recent past. OECD demand, by contrast, is not forecast to return to pre-crisis levels. Natural gas has, for decades, lagged behind coal and oil as an energy source. But today, its consumption is growing rapidly – often as a replacement for coal in the energy mix. Gas is a major provider of electricity production and a key source of heat. This interactive chart shows primary energy consumption from gas across the world.
Related research and data
At its peak, “The whaling industry was huge.” But over the decades, “it was an inexorable decline,” he said. But coal is the world’s dirtiest fuel – it not only emits the most carbon dioxide emissions per unit of energy, it severely impacts health through air pollution. It is still a dominant source of energy across the world today – especially within our electricity mix.
This interactive map shows the share of primary energy from gas worldwide. This interactive map shows the share of primary energy from oil worldwide. In the sections below, we look at each of these sources individually. When burned, they produce carbon dioxide (CO2) and are the largest driver of global climate change. They are also a major contributor to local air pollution, which is estimated to be linked to millions of premature deaths each year. The constraints on our resources and environment—compounded by the rise of the middle class in nations such as China and India—will shape the rest of this century and beyond.
In October 2023, for instance, the International Energy Agency said it expects oil use to have peaked by 2030, declining after that. The petrochemical industry remains a pillar of growth over the forecast period. Ethane, LPG and naphtha together account for 70% of the projected increase in oil product demand to 2026. These biofuels are derived from the raw materials used for industrial processes, including waste, biomass, cooking oil and animal fat waste.
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